Skip to content

AI for leasing companies

We forecast residual values, tyre needs and maintenance using your own contract and workshop data, as we do for parts demand at Athlon.

We use machine learning to predict demand for workshop parts for Athlon

At Athlon, information about parts for maintenance and repairs was spread across separate systems and spreadsheets. Together, we built a central data platform for purchasing, the workshop and logistics, with a parts reservation system and predictive models on top. We worked in short iterations with the people on the shop floor.

Read the case study

How can we tell before the sale whether the residual value in the quote was right?

With closed-end pricing, the leasing company covers depreciation, maintenance and tyres. The calculator estimates these costs when preparing the quote; the actual costs are calculated at the end of the contract. A model based on completed contracts shows sooner where the estimate is off.

Book a call

From parts and tyres to residual value: every line item in the calculation has its own data

Discuss your challenge

Parts at the right time

For Athlon, we use machine learning to predict which parts the workshop will need and when, on a single data platform for procurement, the workshop and logistics.

Spot unusual tyre wear

Athlon’s asset management team uses Qlik dashboards we built to spot unusual patterns in tyre wear and tyre use across the fleet.

Residual value at the quote stage

A model based on previous sale prices, mileage and RDW data estimates, at the quote stage, what a car will fetch at the end of its contract.

Maintenance budget per contract

Using work orders and tyre changes from previous contracts, a model forecasts maintenance and tyre costs by make, model and mileage.

We first test a model against contracts that have already ended

  1. Choose one cost item

    Residual value, tyres or maintenance: we choose one and link contracts, work orders and RDW data by vehicle registration number.

  2. Test against past contracts

    We train the model on older contracts and compare its predictions with what later contracts actually cost or brought in.

  3. Built into costing, with monitoring

    The result goes to the estimator or the workshop, and we monitor whether the model remains accurate.

Do our contracts and work orders contain enough historical data to build a model?

Talk it through with us

A good fit if

You have years of completed contracts with sale proceeds data, work orders and tyre changes, and a recurring decision to make: the residual value in a quote, the maintenance budget or stock levels in the workshop.

Not a good fit if

Dealers hold work orders as PDFs or free text, or contracts cannot be linked to vehicle registration numbers. In that case, you need to start with the data and a dashboard, and we’ll tell you so.

What determines the scope

The number of sources, such as contract records, dealers, tyre suppliers and remarketing; how many years of historical data you have; whether the model covers just one cost item; and who will manage it afterwards.

Can a model help make decisions about customers?

Calculating costs for a car is different from assessing a customer. Under the EU AI Act, a model that assesses the creditworthiness of private leasing customers is classified as high-risk. We calculate residual value and wear and tear at vehicle level.

Residual value, maintenance budget or parts inventory: which should you model first?

Residual value

Choose this if you bear the residual value risk and have sales history by make and model. Our advice: start here if residual value is the largest item in your calculations; see forecasting.

Maintenance and tyres

Choose this if work orders and tyre changes are recorded by vehicle registration. A model forecasts the budget for each contract and flags cars that deviate.

Parts in the workshop

Choose this if parts data is spread across separate systems and spreadsheets. At Athlon, a data platform came first, followed by predictive models for parts demand.

For Athlon, we worked on tyres, parts and the data platform behind them

Data Science Lab has worked with data and AI from Amsterdam since 2016, as a Databricks and Microsoft partner. For Athlon, we built using Snowflake, Azure, Python, R Shiny and Qlik, alongside the people doing the day-to-day work.

Book an introductory meeting

One cost item from your lease calculation is enough to start the conversation

Stef Stoelwinder

Stef Stoelwinder

Business Development

Stef is your first point of contact. In our first conversation, we’ll select one cost item from your calculation and the data behind it.

Which cost item in your lease calculation would you like to forecast more accurately?

Describe the cost item and the systems where contracts, work orders or sales proceeds are recorded. We’ll reply by email or arrange an initial conversation.

Enter a valid email address.

Let us know how we can help you.

Frequently asked questions

For leasing companies, AI means training a model on data you already have: contracts, sale proceeds, work orders, tyre changes and parts in the workshop. You can use it to estimate residual values more accurately, spot unusual wear earlier and identify which parts the workshop needs. These are among the AI applications we build.

You can find more of our work in the sector under mobility and logistics.

With a model trained on cars you have already sold: make, model, fuel type, mileage, contract term, damage and the proceeds from remarketing. The RDW publishes open data for each vehicle registration, including the list price, date of first registration, an assessment of the recorded mileage and outstanding recalls.

The challenge is a new model or powertrain with no sales history. In that case, the model draws on comparable cars, and you factor that into the quote. Read more about forecasting.

By bringing together tyre changes and mileage for each vehicle registration. For Athlon, we used Python, Snowflake and Qlik to build dashboards that give the asset management team detailed insight into the fleet’s tyre use and wear patterns, so it can identify and address anomalies.

A predictive model is the next step: identifying which cars will need new tyres sooner than expected. Read more about business intelligence.

Yes, if work orders are recorded by vehicle registration and type of work. Under a closed-cost arrangement, the leasing company bears any higher costs; under an open-cost arrangement, the difference between estimated and actual costs is settled at the end of the contract. In both cases, a better estimate helps when preparing a quote.

The challenge lies in the work orders themselves: each dealer uses different codes, and free text must first be categorised. If you want to anticipate faults, read about predictive maintenance.

All participants in the Keurmerk Private Lease scheme register lease contracts with the BKR. An AI system that assesses the creditworthiness of natural persons is classified as high-risk under Annex III of the AI Act; according to the European Commission, those rules apply from 2 December 2027. Systems used to detect financial fraud are excluded.

Your legal counsel or compliance department determines whether your approval model falls into that category; we can help you assess it. See the AI Act and Responsible AI.

By monitoring and retraining it. A new generation of electric cars, a price change by a manufacturer or a shift in demand in the used-car market changes what a car will sell for. The prediction then becomes less accurate. This is called drift.

Decide in advance who receives an alert and who approves a new version. You can read how this works under MLOps; your team can manage the model, or we can do it through management and continuous improvement.

When the main question is what happened last quarter, rather than what will happen next. In that case, a Power BI dashboard using your contract and work order data is enough. A fixed allowance in your cost calculations may also be sufficient if a particular model performs the same way every year.

If contracts, work orders and sale proceeds sit in separate systems without a shared vehicle registration identifier, start with the data foundation. If a simpler solution is a better fit, we’ll tell you.